The survey for the compilation of the quarterly economic sentiment indicator is carried out by the Association of Chief Executive Officers (ACEO), an organization that is the best advocate for the top management in Greece, with members being among the top executives of the most important companies in the country, in collaboration with ICAP, being the largest group providing services to businesses. The survey is conducted every three months among the top managers of the largest Greek companies in order to record their assessments regarding the current economic situation and their forecasts for the near future.
The survey is conducted among the CEOs (Managing Directors, Presidents and General Managers) of the 2,080 largest Greek companies. The members of ACEO are added to this population, so the reporting population stands at 2,540 people. The questionnaire includes 12 questions and the completion and registration of which is done online through a special online survey platform.
The 10 main questions concern the current state of the economy and the future expectations, while 2 additional questions are addressed to the Managing Directors regarding important issues of general economic interest during the survey period. The current economic situation indicator (ACEO/ICAP-CEO Current status Index) is based on the answers referring to the current economic situation and the expectations’ index (ACEO/ICAP-CEO Expectation Index) is based on the answers referring to the future expectations. The current economic situation indicator (ACEO/ICAP-CEO Current status Index) is based on the answers referring to the current economic situation and the expectations’ index (ACEO/ICAP-CEO Expectation Index) is based on the answers referring to the future expectations. The conversion of the answers into an index and then into a chronological order was carried out using the net-balances method (differences of positive-negative answers) .
All the indices are quarterly, based on the 4th quarter of 2008 when the first survey was conducted. The presentation of the survey results also includes the percentage distribution of the answers per question, while an analysis of the answers is made according to the size of the companies which were distinguished into three strata based on the criterion of employment (small and medium-sized enterprises with not more than 100 people employed by them, large enterprises with 101-300 employees and very large enterprises with 301 employees and more) and depending on the sector of activity where the enterprises were distinguished into three layers (agricultural products – industry – energy – construction, trade and services). The sample is updated in each survey by a small percentage, in order to monitor the developments of the financial sizes of the companies as well as the movements of the top executives.
Rise of the Economic Sentiment Indicator in Q4 2022
The Economic Sentiment Indicator among CEOs in the fourth quarter of 2022 rose compared to the previous quarter.
One in two CEOs stated that interest rate increase would lead to new non-performing / distressed /”red” loans. Moreover, seven out of ten CEOs believe that in 2023 there will be a moderate increase in inflationary pressures.
The general economic climate index stood at 154 units in the 4th quarter of 2022, as it was recorded by the 3-month survey conducted by the Association of Chief Executive Officers (ACEO) in collaboration with ICAP CRIF on a sample of 2,540 CEOs/General Managers of the largest Greek companies. The research was carried out during the period from 16/12/2022 to 3/1/2023.
“The rise in the economic sentiment index in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year compared to the previous one was significant and notable. The evolution of the index indicates the optimism among the CEOs about the outcome of the pandemic and the correction or settlement of imbalances in the global energy market and the supply chain. The vast majority of CEOs express their concern about the rise in interest rates as they consider that this would more or less lead to a new wave of non-performing loans, while they also believe that in 2023 there will be a moderate increase in inflationary pressures.”